Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 14.799185 16.886178 19.123595 21.696159 24.567683 27.669515 31.268824
2025-08-31 11.529246 14.338327 17.575950 21.564982 26.327806 31.811464 38.580857
2025-09-07 9.927981 13.050837 16.820157 21.670347 27.707617 34.933971 44.192707
2025-09-14 8.914766 12.310842 16.580386 22.286369 29.648753 38.758467 50.803313
2025-09-21 7.814052 11.284388 15.810577 22.067681 30.401817 41.018057 55.443963
2025-09-28 6.647716 10.027519 14.595252 21.118061 30.072528 41.795860 58.139100
2025-10-05 6.200049 9.703256 14.581552 21.738985 31.813315 45.303017 64.505610
2025-10-12 5.758833 9.335182 14.458789 22.170339 33.281405 48.473898 70.522037
2025-10-19 5.212218 8.752018 13.968917 22.021675 33.894233 50.463308 74.964818
2025-10-26 4.717592 8.197220 13.467749 21.802905 34.364244 52.237710 79.140171
2025-11-02 4.342850 7.793441 13.155949 21.830337 35.171111 54.495617 84.058049
2025-11-09 4.041070 7.478147 12.951315 21.995212 36.171448 57.050755 89.476422
2025-11-16 3.710087 7.091020 12.613735 21.943825 36.859266 59.206710 94.452089
2025-11-23 3.386060 6.685596 12.214732 21.763893 37.329795 61.048463 99.026862
2025-11-30 3.153315 6.417130 12.017171 21.886937 38.264673 63.606488 104.744463
2025-12-07 3.026753 6.329184 12.116556 22.502256 40.010191 67.470012 112.586758
2025-12-14 2.775075 5.983447 11.741085 22.283844 40.370948 69.167326 117.113130
2025-12-21 2.436784 5.437988 10.968700 21.325315 39.440655 68.761018 118.295188
2025-12-28 2.355982 5.391879 11.095858 21.951839 41.207986 72.745887 126.584716
2026-01-04 2.254293 5.293744 11.117999 22.386799 42.659087 76.258610 134.219241
2026-01-11 2.085930 5.041434 10.830383 22.236894 43.078544 78.076199 139.143419
2026-01-18 1.923576 4.785829 10.516780 22.016235 43.354727 79.652956 143.708120
2026-01-25 1.802577 4.608260 10.342351 22.043908 44.069432 81.984825 149.589968